The Power of Applied Hope

If you read my About Me page, you will see that it ends with this:  “Finally, I am an optimist.  It’s an exciting time to be alive”.

I thought that now would be the perfect time to revisit optimism – not just as a way of viewing external events and avoiding despair, but as a way to impact events.  Let’s start with three well-known characters:  Bill Gates, Melinda Gates, and Warren Buffet.

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Last week, the Gates Foundation released their annual letter. Since Warren Buffet gave the bulk of his wealth – $30B or so – to the Gates Foundation in 2006, Bill and Melinda addressed this year’s letter directly to Warren. I recommend you read through the letter in its entirety.

In one part of the letter they touch upon why they remain optimistic about many of the major health challenges facing the world.  This optimism runs contrary to rampant pessimism. For instance the statistic below:

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Bill puts it well here:

“One of my favorite books is Steven Pinker’s  The Better Angels of Our Nature. It shows how violence has dropped dramatically over time. That’s startling news to people, because they tend to think things are not improving as much as they are. Actually, in significant ways, the world is a better place to live than it has ever been. Global poverty is going down, childhood deaths are dropping, literacy is rising, the status of women and minorities around the world is improving.”

Optimism (and pessimism) perpetuates itself. While the political world has become practiced in leveraging fear, that approach doesn’t work as well in the private sector, where leaders create outcomes based upon the shared belief and passion of their teams.

Which leads me to a related point: the importance of active optimism, or “applied hope”.  Before I get into the provenance of this phrase, let me drop one last (telling) quote from the Gates letter, this line specifically from Melinda:

Poker, Bifocals, and You

Every now and again I like to provide examples of cool things that are happening.  Without further ado, let’s dive in….

This might be my 3rd grade picture

This might be my 3rd grade picture

Say No to BifocalsThe reason people don’t usually see me with eyeglasses isn’t because I have perfect eyesight. It’s because I wear contact lenses made for the preposterously near-sighted. Lately however I’ve been wearing reading glasses in restaurants, my theory being that restaurants have recently decreased both their lighting and the font size used in their menu and receipts. It must be their fault, somehow. 
 
Researchers at the University of Utah have developed eyeglasses that can sense when you’re looking at something close or far and adjust the lens strength accordingly.  They do this with a little infrared sensor embedded in the bridge of the glasses to detect where your eye is focusing and the glasses can alter the lens correction within 14 milliseconds.
 
One potential advantage is that users will only need to change their settings as their prescriptions change.
 
The trick here is not so much the Big Discovery, but turning the innovation into a mass-market product. Despite my poor eyesight, I see this as inevitable.  
 
(Hat tip to The Hustle for the info, which you can read here).
 
Poker Players Fold. Software developed at Carnegie Mellon was able to recently trounce a group of world-class poker players at Texas Hold ‘EmIn the era of Watson/Jeopardy and Deep Blue/Chess victories, this might not pass as shocking news anymore.
 
But the big breakthrough here is that unlike chess, poker is a game where participants have imperfect information. You only know your hand – not the other person’s.  The resulting computing task is therefore more difficult. (Fun fact: the developers leveraged the game-theory work of Nobel laureate John Nash, he of the Beautiful Mind movie).
 
The speed of this breakthrough stunned even the experts. Said one scientist: “Such an event was prognosticated to be at least a decade away.”
 
(Hat tip to The Powersheet for the info).

Zume: Silicon, Sausage, and Pizza Automation

As we hear about automation changing the face of work, consider the future for the neighborhood pizza worker.

I'd also like a glass of Chianti with that...

I’d also like a glass of Chianti with that…

Zume Pizza, a startup in Mountain View, CA, is imagining a different future for how your pizza will be made and delivered.

According to this article, Zume is a pizza chain startup that is envisioning a future where machines and robotic arms press the dough, spread the sauce in “near perfect circles”, add the ingredients, and slide the pie into an 800 degree oven for the first few minutes of baking. The pie is then transferred to a delivery vehicle that will finish the baking process in on-board ovens on it’s way to your house – a baking process timed to complete exactly as the vehicle arrives at your location.

Suddenly I’m getting hungry….

As you might imagine, Zume currently spends far less on labor costs than Dominos or McDonalds. They are currently leveraging that lower cost basis to provide higher pay and full benefits to their fewer employees, but I suspect that sort of California idealism won’t last long as the model expands in the market and new competitors enter. In just the past few months McDonalds has increased their roll-out of automated ordering kiosks, which many (including McDonalds executives) say is a response to the recent efforts to increase the minimum wage to $15 in various cities.

Given the rise of driverless cars and trucks, I absolutely envision the day when we will order our pizzas using convenient mobile apps or voice assistants, get an alert when the truck is in front of our house, walk to the (driverless) truck to tap in the code that appeared with the alert, and get the boxed, piping hot pizza we ordered right there.

The Dangers of Outsourcing Your Sources

Probably all of us remember that one English class (or composition class or whatever your school system called it) where the teacher was a stickler for good content and rigorous adherence to the published school writing policy.  We learned to construct our arguments following accepted formats, demonstrate the difference between our work and the work of others, and to cite the sources we used by including footnotes and bibliographies which listed the metadata (tech term!) associated with each source – the author, title, publisher, the relevant pages, etc.

It turns out that in our business culture, citing your sources – or, even more importantly, knowing them – is perhaps a lost art but could separate the unserious from the serious.

Since I am always interested in how the world is changing and how globalization is affecting much of that change, it was with interest that I read this article about a town you never heard of: Veles (population: 45,000) in the Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia.

In the recent US presidential elections, much was written about the proliferation of “fake” news sites, which spin fake stories to excite partisans and drive social media shares, clicks, and ad revenue.  It turns out that the town of Veles specialized in this cottage industry during the recent US presidential election.  Here is a quote from a creator of just one of the 100 fake news sites in Veles:

Tom Hanks, Robert Malthus, and our Technology Blindspot

This is going to make me sound like a geek, but this past weekend I spent a few minutes flipping through an old college economics textbook.  I didn’t keep many of those textbooks, but I enjoyed the class and always thought having a book on the Evolution of Economic Thought (the book’s title) might be a good thing to add to my then very insignificant personal library.

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I spent a bit of time in the section about Thomas Malthus, a British economist in the late 18th century. If you were to associate one word with Malthus, that word would be “overpopulation”.  His name is tied to that word still today. Just to show that Malthus’s name has jumped the shark from dusty economics textbooks to current use, look at some of the coverage on Tom Hanks’ new movie “Inferno” (“Tom Hanks Endorses ‘Malthusian Theory’ of Overpopulation“)

Malthus viewed populations as growing geometrically but food production only increasing arithmetically – therefore, he predicted, the growing world population would lead to mass starvation.

Malthus would be shocked to see that some of the chief health challenges in the populous and industrialized world of today are more associated with obesity than starvation. The idea that only 2% of the United States’ 320M citizens work in farming is a rebuke to Malthus’s doomsday predictions.

What Malthus missed is the rise of technology and productivity. And while we might forgive Malthus for this blindspot (although not, in my mind, many of his disturbing proposed solutions to the overpopulation he so feared), it is more difficult to forgive it in ourselves. Yet I think we continue to have it – and I’m no exception.

In the era of the PC, it was hard to imagine what else there was that could be invented and create such a societal impact.  Ditto the iPhone and the rise of the mobile era.  Even as Moore’s Law continued, we humans have had a hard time envisioning how the future is likely to change drastically from the present.

The increase in the all our personal devices have perhaps blinded us to where real innovation happens.  We mistakenly conflate new and more spectacular devices with actual innovation (see here), but realistically our personal productivity hasn’t moved along as quickly as our vibrating and chirping personal devices might have us believe.

Here are a couple thoughts to consider as we look toward the future:

What Gymnastics Teaches Us About Competition

Most of us who watched the recent gymnastics competition at the 2016 Olympics in Rio found ourselves stupefied by the talent displayed by the diminutive athletes.  To say that the routines seemed to be gravity-defying is an understatement.  I mean, how do you even judge these?  When the television commentator says that an athlete did a triple-flip with two-and-a-half twists, I can only take her word for it since most of the time I can’t see what’s going in inside the airborne flurry of arms/legs/leotards that ends in a “stuck” landing.  The athletes often remind me of the Tasmanian Devil of cartoon fame, who was always winding himself up in a cyclone of indecipherable motion.

If you’re like me, you may start to wonder:  how have these performances changed over the years?

Below are two videos.  The first is a video of Cathy Rigby – every bit the household name at the time as Simone Biles is today – doing a balance beam routine at the 1970 World Championships in Yugoslavia (a former Soviet “republic”).  Viewed through the lens of the 21st century, the commentator’s reaction to some of her moves are at times as amusing as the video itself.  The second video is Simone’s balance beam routine at an international event prior to the Olympics in 2016.

Monkeys, Robots & Your Future

A friend of mine was recently talking to an importer who represented an enormous rubber plantation in Sri Lanka. Evidently, the first step in making rubber is for someone to climb a tree, strip back some bark, and insert a tap into the trunk to enable the sap to flow out. My friend was asking the importer about the costs to do that, and the importer replied: “Our costs are really low. To be honest, we’ve trained monkeys to do it”.

Future Blogger?

Future Blogger?

Monkeys!

How many times have we heard someone say “that job is so easy I could train a monkey to do it”? This is the first time I’ve ever heard that really happening. Apparently, they also need to grab coconuts from trees to get coconut milk as part of their manufacturing process, and they’ve trained the monkeys to do that also.

Meanwhile, automated cars are driving on public roads, drones are delivering packages, and human-guided robots are performing surgeries. It’s only a matter of time before most vehicles on the roads are fully automated, planes lack pilots, and surgical robots don’t need a human to guide them. And there’s this: we haven’t even begun to scratch the surface.

Naturally, this can create worry. To quote William Bossert, a former computer science professor from Harvard, “If you’re afraid that you might be replaced by a computer, then you probably can be – and should be”.

Geoff Colvin has written a book on this topic: Humans are Underrated. To get a sense as to Geoff’s take, you should check out this article on the subject.

Monkeys and machines replacing low-skill labor. Algorithms and robots replacing high-skill labor. What’s a human to do?

Why Leaders Are Persuadable

What would you say is the most disappointing societal change in your lifetime? I’m not talking about wars or long-term human problems like racism. I’m talking about some change that has happened in your lifetime that has made the world worse, not better. For me – and get ready to be shocked – possibly the most disappointing change has been the internet.
Break-Down-Walls

Actually, I’m not disappointed by the internet as much as disappointed about what we’ve done with it or, more appropriately, what we have NOT done with it.

I could write about the benefits of the internet for the rest of my days and never scratch the surface. The fact that I’m writing this post 39,000 feet above sea level is not lost on me, nor the fact that I’m returning from the Silicon Valley where the internet helped turn a series of former fruit orchards into a place where small houses cost a cool million (if you can even find one at that price).

Here is my gripe: the internet promised us connectivity and information flow. It promised to break down information silos. In it’s earliest days, we were contemplating a future where any of us could get any information and humanity (we assumed) would be better informed.

We would understand complicated concepts with greater ease. We would make better economic and political decisions based upon a shared understanding of the world.

Ok – maybe we didn’t believe it all exactly that way, but the degree to which the internet has served to erect rather than remove barriers has been a surprise to me, although I have a suspicion that a time-traveling George Orwell and other great authors wouldn’t be overly surprised.

As the network grew, the niches grew and became more apparent. The human weakness of committing confirmation bias has led us to be segmented into communities of the like-minded. As a result, fissures between people seem to be deepening.

This blog is a place where we focus on topics like leadership, innovation, balance, and personal effectiveness, and do so with an abundance mentality which flows from a deep sense of optimism. So let’s turn our attention in two directions: first looking in the mirror and then looking forward.

Conscious Capitalism and Your Business

There is a lot of conversation happening about what capitalism means, and how it might morph to address a changing society. Have you noticed it? I feel that there has been a growing pace and intensity to this global conversation, and I wanted to provide you with a few links to some thoughtful content on this topic, as well as distill the “big conversation” into something actionable.

The fundamental challenge for companies is to balance the tension between three vital stakeholders in the business: the customer, the employees, and the investors. This leads companies to closely manage their labor costs (employees) to pay no more than absolutely necessary so that they can win customers in a competitive market and satisfy the aspirations of investors (represented by boards and executive management).  But there is an emerging school of thought around the idea of conscious capitalism.  It’s not that it’s  new idea (it’s not).  It’s that I’m noticing a new intensity to the discussion.

I’ve long thought the best path forward is to start with the employees. The emphasis on investors above other stakeholders has led to a national short-term approach to investment that, over time, leads to a sort of corporate anorexia. Many businesses are driving 100 mph in 90 day fogs.

When we hear “invest in employees” people immediately think about pay, but there are a number of interesting ways that companies can invest in employees, such as in this cover story from The Atlantic which chronicles how Starbucks is partnering with higher education innovators to give their employees an opportunity to get the elusive degree.

France, “Le Hashtag”, and Digital Language

When I was living in France as a college student many years ago, my fellow students and I were greatly amused by the valiant effort of the French government to erect unenforceable barriers designed to stem the pollution of their mother tongue from the increasingly popular, but oh-so-gauche terms emanating from the English-speaking world. The French were forever trying to maintain the purity of their beautiful language, but the onslaught of new terms from the United States and Britain were leading to bastardized cognates like “le weekend” and “le hamburger”.

Photo courtesy of Roberta Cortese

Photo courtesy of Roberta Cortese

So it was with great enjoyment that I read this interesting op-ed from William Alexander, author of the book Flirting with French. Evidently, the French have realized that their language is doing just fine, merçi beaucoup, and any notion that some group of bureaucrats could stem the tide of new phrases in the Twitter age was ridicule.

As it turns out, the French attempt to use the phrase mot-dièse to thwart the more popular phrase “le hashtag” hasn’t found much traction with French tweeters, and the Ministry of Culture finally waived the white flag.

Although I didn’t stop by France on this last trip (très dommage) I did re-experience the amazing English language skills of my hosts, which leads me to think about what the lingua franca of tomorrow will look like, and how we might prepare.